U.S. Economic Growth to Regain Momentum This Year, Group Says

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<h2><font color=#003399>U.S. Economic Growth to Regain Momentum This Year, Group Says</font></h2>
The U.S. economy will expand in the second half this year and in 2004 at the fastest rate since 2000, leading to more business investment and lower unemployment, a survey by the nation's largest association of business economists found.

Gross domestic product will increase 3.6 percent in the second half and for all of next year, according to the National Association for Business Economics, which surveyed 37 forecasters May 2-16.

U.S. unemployment will hold at 6 percent this year and fall to 5.7 percent by the end of next year, according to the survey's median forecast.

Business fixed investment will increase 1.4 percent this year before surging 8.1 percent next, the group found, and corporate profits will rise 9.6 percent this year and 15 percent in 2004.

The economists association conducts its outlook survey four times a year, in February, May, September and November.

In May 2001, the group forecast a 2 percent increase for the year; the gain was 0.3 percent.

Deflation, or a destabilizing general decline in prices, which Federal Reserve officials have said must be avoided, won't be a problem in the United States, according to the panel.

The consumer price index will rise 2.3 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2004.

Wages will increase 3.3 percent in 2003 and 3.5 percent next year, supporting "continued moderate gains" in consumer spending, the survey found.


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