The Real Poll numbers by Dick Morris

[261911]

The media is trying to create a sense of momentum and of inevitability about the Obama candidacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even speculated about a possible Democratic landslide. On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.

The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the thirteen states studied, he improved or Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four. To read the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact, the exact reverse is true. Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. If he carries these states, he’ll have 228 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win.

To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio where he’s down by only one. If he carries all three of these states and also wins all the others where Obama is now at 50% or less – Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey — he will get 351 electoral votes, a landslide about equal to Obama’s 363 vote tally in 2008.The strong probability is that Romney does, in fact, carry Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and a share of the other states where Obama is below 50% of the vote.

So don’t believe the garbage being put out by the media. The attempt to portray Romney as not catching on and as dropping in the polls is ludicrous. It is, at best, the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of deliberate media bias. But Romney is winning and expanding his lead each week. That’s the real story.

http://www.dickmorris.com/the-real-p...ers/#more-9393

[Warhawk1982]

Man I hope he can pull this off. Please wake up America!

[UB_S]

There are other articles out there that suggest that the polls are indeed skewed toward the dems - here is yet another (opinion) piece on the subject:



Commentary: The mainstream media polls are skewed for a reason
Examiner / 8-8-2012 / Dean Chambers

This is not at all a conspiracy theory. I don't do conspiracy theories. This is a very well designed, well planned and they hope, brilliantly executed plan to help President Obama win a second term. The mainstream media has no intentions of sitting on the sidelines and merely objectively reporting the news of the election contest while watching Barack Obama become another Jimmy Carter. They will create the perception, via skewed polls, that Obama is winning and then hope the campaign can take advantage of this perception and steal enough votes to actually win the election. Then the perception, and the polls, will validate the stolen election and make it look all so plausible and realistic. If you don't believe they are doing this, then ask yourself how a president who is doing worse economically than Jimmy Carter was can somehow be reelected ...

... If we do not let them get away with the lies they are telling about Romney to try to undermine his support, the less likely they are able to get close enough in the polls for the other efforts to be able to succeed. The more the public sees through the viciously negative advertisements being being run by the Obama campaign and the unofficial groups that support him, the more they will realize just how dishonest this president is and how much he seeks to avoid being accountable for his own failure to perform as president.

It all comes down to exposing what they're doing. Exposing the lies in their ads, exposing the skewed mainstream media polls exposing the strategy behind all of this only renders it ineffective if voters understand what is being attempted. A well-informed voter is the very individual on election day the Obama campaign has the most to worry about.

http://www.examiner.com/article/commentary-the-mainstream-media-polls-are-skewed-for-a-reason

[261911]

Dear Friend,

I was outraged today when I saw a Washington Post article headlined “Three Polls Show Obama Widening Lead Over Romney.” One was a poll from FOX News that showed Obama 9 points ahead. The others were surveys by CNN and Reuters showing a 7 point Obama lead. NOT TRUE!

Click Here to read the Washington Post article I am referring to.

The real numbers, of likely voters are found in the Rasmussen Polls which had Romney ahead by three yesterday and four today. Gallup, which surveys registered voters (as opposed to likely voters) has the race tied at 46-46.
There are several factors which explain the difference:

1. Obama’s voters don’t want to come out and vote for him. They are only lukewarm and are not people who always vote. Cynical and apathetic, they do not begin to approximate the intensity of the Romney voters or even of the 2008 Obama backers.

2. Black turnout is traditionally 11% of the total vote. In 2008, rose to 14%, providing Obama with more than half of his margin of victory. Current polls suggest a reversion to the pre-2008 turnout level, but polling firms that do not measure voter intention can’t tell that and weight the black vote up to 12, 13, or even 14 percent, padding Obama’s vote artificially.

3. Likewise with Latino vote which was 7% of the vote and grew to 8.5% in 2008. Their votes this time show signs of returning to historic norms

4. Polls of registered voters tend to weight up the Democratic respondents, according their opinions more weight in the poll. That’s because their data usually shows fewer Democrats in their sample than in national registration figures. But, in weighting for party, they obscure the fact that a great many registered Democrats have left the Party, particularly in the past few years, a finding that is obliterated by the weighting.

The fact is that Rasmussen and Gallup both showed drops for Romney about 4-5 days ago when negative coverage of his foreign trip (itself a sign of media bias) tended to dampen his ratings. But both have shown a recovery since. Rasmussen and Gallup poll every day. The other polls are conducted over a period of several days. So the Rasmussen and Gallup data are a few days fresher than the other polls and reflect Romney’s recovery.

Thanks,

Dick Morris

http://www.dickmorris.com/dont-believe-poll-propaganda/

[lightnin']

...the polls I read are Rasmussen Report and Real Clear Politics.

They do the best job for POTUS, Senate, and Governors races across the board.

I simply do not trust Gallup, NYSlime/CBS/Fox or any media-generated polling.

[261911]

Originally Posted by lightnin'

...the polls I read are Rasmussen Report and Real Clear Politics.

They do the best job for POTUS, Senate, and Governors races across the board.

I simply do not trust Gallup, NYSlime/CBS/Fox or any media-generated polling.

Same here. Rasmussen is the most reliable one.