Analysis: Iran's new political landscape

[theRepublic]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/3476193.stm

Analysis: Iran's new political landscape

By Sadeq Saba
BBC regional analyst


Visitors to Iran these days can't fail to notice a change in the atmosphere of the place.

Twenty-five years on from the Islamic revolution, young girls on the streets of Tehran have abandoned their black chadors in favour of tight-fitting coats and designer sunglasses.

Few government agents seem inclined to enforce the Islamic Republic's moral code any more.

Iran Air no longer warns passengers flying into Tehran about the need to adhere to a strict dress code.

Restaurants have started admitting women who are "improperly" dressed and alcoholic drinks are readily available on the black market.

In recent months, ecstasy tablets have also become popular with the young. Men and women now mix together more freely than ever before.

Teenagers pack into Western-style coffee shops in the evenings, and sex before marriage is becoming more acceptable.

Frustration

There has also been a radical change in the political atmosphere.

Six years after President Khatami swept to power in a landslide election victory, there is a widespread feeling of disillusionment with the reformist cause.

The frustration is particularly evident amongst young Iranians, who make up more than two-thirds of the population.

Most despise the Islamic regime but are no longer prepared to risk violence to change it. They are content to get what enjoyment they can from life and to keep out of the way.

For the conservatives - who never had much support from the country's youth at election time - this mood does them no damage.

But for the reformists, outraged by the disqualification of hundreds of their candidates for parliamentary elections in February, political indifference is poison.

President Khatami's victory six years ago was achieved mainly because his ideas mobilised younger voters.

Now, however, not even the imprisonment of reformist politicians or banning of liberal newspapers mobilises them. They see the reformists as part of the Islamic establishment and have little sympathy for them.

Many people say they are not planning to vote in the elections, because it will not make any difference to the ruling clerics anyway. So turn-out is expected to be low, which will only help the conservatives.

Secularism

Unlike their counterparts in the rest of the Middle East, many young Iranians are openly pro-American, and approve of the American lifestyle.

Secularism is now becoming one of the main demands in Iran. The country where the idea of political Islam was born has become the place where it is slowly dying.

It is not just ordinary Iranians who are saying that the mullahs should return to the mosques. Some mullahs, too, have concluded that it would be better for their faith if religion kept out of politics.

These issues, remarkably, are debated openly in Iran, even within the clerical establishment.

This new openness has been the hallmark of the years since President Khatami came to power.

Many newspapers have started up and then been closed by the conservative authorities. But the momentum for debate has not been stopped.

The biggest growth area has been the internet and interest in the international media.

Although in theory watching satellite television is forbidden, it is very largely tolerated.

Sacred leader

The Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is now the principal target of popular resentment.

He is seen as the main obstacle to democracy and freedom in Iran.


Alcohol is readily available on the black market
During recent demonstrations, some people dared for the first time to denounce him personally.

However, a well-organised minority still support the ayatollah and see him as a sacred leader whose orders should be obeyed without question.

A small group of extremists among them attack critics of the regime and disrupt meetings in the name of defending the supreme leader and Islamic values.

Another big change in Iran is the increasingly assertive and visible role of women in society.

For the first time in Iranian history, over 60% of new entrants to universities are women. Women are now at the forefront of calls for reform and for greater social freedom.

But despite the general lightening up of the atmosphere, the law remains the same.

Restaurants can still be closed for allowing un-Islamic behaviour, people caught drinking can still face a flogging, and hardliners still intimidate women who are deemed to be improperly dressed.

Chinese model?

While many Iranian people, especially women, say they have forced the ruling clerics to accept that change is a reality, others think that the regime's tolerance of more individual freedoms is part of a long-term plan.

Conservative leaders, they believe, would like to follow a so-called Chinese model of society, where there is relative individual freedom but tight political control.

The still-powerful former president, Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, has said that he favours such a model.

But there is a limit to what the ruling clerics will tolerate.

Devout Muslims see hejab as the symbol of Islam and would never accept a freer dress code for women.






Young Iranians make up 70% of the population. Analysts say they are very pro-American and would like a Secular democracy. They're leading a social revolution, but will they lead a political revolution?

[theRepublic]

Iranian Youth sport "USA" sweatshirt in Tehran, Iran.

[sonnyhouse]

I dig the Iranian people. I know there are plenty of islamists over there too, but they seem to like us alot more than most Muslims. Plus they have a wonderfull film industry right now. Art is a good indicator of the souls of the people.

Let's not bomb them.

[Paul_Fisher]

Actually, moving in to take out the government, assuming a civilian-led regime change from the inside out doesn't work, is a good idea. Just not as a first-choice

[SteelHawk]

Don't worry the Shiite Clerics in Iran have plans of sending in a "voluntary"(you can bet it wont be the regime backers)army of "peace keepers" in Iraq after the Us troop withdraw from Iraq. that will get rid of the majority of the young pro- American types and give their muslim/clergy led government an easier time to pursue their nuclear weapons program and infuse the Iraqi radical shiites to work over these young Pro-american Iranies to the more radical islamic suicidal type.
We(the U.S. & NATO) need to decapitate the fundamentalist islamic clerics now! everywhere in the Middle East or we will pay for the mistake of leaving them in power, in the future.

[TXNavy]

Sure! That strategy worked well for the Soviets in Afghanistan, why not! Kill the head and the body dies!

Oh wait. It didn't Nevermind. And Ho Chi Minh's death didn't stop the North Vietnamese, either. [img]graemlins/popcorn.gif[/img]

There's realistic, effective ways of undercutting their authority. You haven't hit on one yet.

Oh, sorry, I forgot your master plan. "To win." Right.

[SteelHawk]

Hey TX I know you'd rather wait and see another 9/11 and even then you probably want to negotiate with who ever did it. Hey maybe you should run for the mayor of Bagdad! you'll have Al Sadders vote!!

[TXNavy]

Different situation. I'd kill them.

However, your inability to differentiate between circumstances is irritating. The city of Fallujah is not lock, stock and barrel full of terrorists. Nor is Najaf. You seem to think it is, and that women and children deserve the glass parking lot treatment.

Strangely, you seem to be of single purpose here. Prove you're not a troll, or standby to be moved along. [img]graemlins/waiting.gif[/img]

[SteelHawk]

TX I'm at glad we see at least this senario in the same light. But for the WAR at hand at least for now, we can agree to disagree!

[Rock the Casbah]

Iran is changing for the better. So lets kill some of their clerics ? That will advance the cause, er, how much ? Shucks - it would turn the place into a bloodbath. Lets all spin back 20 years. Cooooool. A burgeoning Muslim fundie theocracy no less.

What would be the effect on Shia Iraq ? That's right. Bad too. A whole new arguement for the AlSadrs to deploy against the "occupiers".

That Nobel Prize for Stupidity is only heading one way right now.........